All Aboard the Pipeline Express
READ TIME: 3 minutes
Federal: Pipeline to the south
Provincial: Ontario's EV plan gets a quiet rewrite
Procurement Watch: A court fight over an Ontario Place bid
On The Record: Signature Media and Spokesperson Training
But first… here’s what we’ve been up to this week:
Saeed was on iHeartRadio/CFRB 1010 again last Tuesday to discuss Carney's reversal of Trudeau-era energy policy, what it means for environmental caucus members inside the Liberal party, and the ROI risk if Alberta's new pipeline doesn't get built. Catch the full episode here.
And, have you checked out Valerie’s latest video? This week, she breaks down changes coming to Bill C-36, an Act to enact the Protecting Privacy and Consume Data Act.
1. Federal: Pipeline to the south
Alberta just submitted a new $40-billion West Coast pipeline to Ottawa's Major Projects Office. After a year of both governments swearing they'd wait for a private proponent, they've put their names on it together: Ottawa and Alberta hold the majority, Pembina takes about 10%.
Our read: the announcement already did its main job. Carney wants to show that federalism working, Smith gets her pipeline and quiets the separatists, and neither needs a barrel to move to bank that political win.. The pipeline is the part that might not happen.
Why we doubt the build: it's conditioned on a Pathways carbon-capture network the producers don't want to fund, the ownership and Indigenous-equity terms are still blank, and the original Trans Mountain ran several times over budget to about $34 billion. A 2032 in-service date has three election cycles in front of it.
The Major Projects Office has until October 1 to designate the pipeline a project of national interest, decline it, or send it back for more engagement.
Selvam Insights:
The lesson for any "private-led" file (P3s, small nuclear, housing infrastructure): read who's on the hook, not the press release. Here the government took the cost overruns and the spill risk, while the private partner took 10% and the fees. Whoever carries the risk is who really calls the shots, and who you actually need to lobby.
Oil sands and their suppliers: this pipeline depends on a carbon-capture network the producers don't want to pay for. Until that's settled, the timeline isn't real. Watch that fight, not the October 1 decision, if you want to know whether this gets built.
Everyone chasing near-term work: the sure bets are the smaller pieces around the pipeline. The $10 billion Roberts Bank terminal and the northern transmission line are funded now, and raising the existing line to 1.2 million barrels a day needs no new pipe and no October decision. Go after those while everyone else stares at the big project.
2. Provincial: Ontario's EV plan gets a quiet rewrite
Will Ontarians get a rebate again for buying a brand spankin’ new Tesla? Well, Ontario is rewriting its EV strategy this summer, and the numbers explain why. A new strategy is reportedly coming, years after the Ford government's "Driving Prosperity" plan set a target of 400,000 EVs and hybrids. A rebate might be the Ford government’s last priority but it may not be off the table.
Ontario's vehicle output fell to 1.2 million in 2025, from 2.3 million in 2016. The Detroit Three's share of Canadian auto manufacturing dropped from 56% in 2016 to 23% in 2025. The projects that anchored the old plan are in flux. Honda postponed its $15 billion Alliston complex, Ford switched Oakville from EVs to Super Duty trucks, and Stellantis sold its Windsor battery stake. Economic Development Minister Vic Fedeli's office says the approach hasn't changed and points to $46 billion in new auto investment since 2018, with the critical-minerals piece the part expected to hold.
Selvam Insights:
Battery materials and critical-minerals processing: this is the part that survives the rewrite, because minerals sell into global supply chains, not just Ontario car plants. That protects you from U.S. tariffs and from an EV market that rises and falls on subsidies, and it's why the province will keep spending here. Focus upstream.
Auto parts tied to specific EV programs: you're in the opposite spot. You're exposed to U.S. tariffs and a market that dropped about 41% when federal rebates ended in 2025. The federal duty rules being redrawn will make or break your margins.
Industrial real estate: don’t treat the three plant towns as one bet. Oakville switched to gas trucks, so jobs and land there are steadier; Alliston's $15 billion EV plant is frozen, so that's where the risk sits - underwrite them separately.
Lenders and insurers: watch for a demand gap around 2030, when the federal EV subsidy ends just as the delayed plants would be ramping up.
3. Procurement watch: A court fight over an Ontario Place bid
A losing bidder just took Infrastructure Ontario to court, and the reason should worry anyone who bids provincially. The Trillium reported July 3 that LANDinc filed a Divisional Court application to quash its disqualification from an RFP for public-realm consulting on Ontario Place, alleging it was cut because a junior employee showed Doug Ford a 3D model during the bidding period, at his request. The firm says the disqualification followed a May 26 walkthrough at its office.
The allegations are unproven, and it's a single source so far. The premier's office says neither Ford nor his staff would know a proponent's involvement in an active procurement. With Queen's Park out until October 27, this one plays out in court and the press, not question period.
Blackout-period contact is one of the few bright-line rules in procurement.
Selvam Insights:
Construction, architecture, and professional services bidding provincial RFPs: during the blackout period, don't talk to anyone in government about the project, even if a politician brings it up first. Send it to the official contact and track what happened.
Developers on marquee provincial files: political proximity reads as a bid risk during a live procurement. Manage the optics deliberately, or you lose the work you were closest to.
Anyone counting on the Ontario Place schedule: a court challenge to a public-realm award can slow it. Build the contingency now, and if you're mid-bid and unsure where the line sits, get advice before the meeting. We can help with this.
4. On The Record: media training for the real world.
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